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DTN Midday Grain Comments     04/24 11:36

   All Grains Lower at Midday

   Fresh lows for grains with broad selling returning during the day session.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow 10 points lower. The 
interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 15 points higher. 
Energies are weaker with crude down 0.40. Livestock trade is lower. Precious 
metals are firmer with gold down 4.40. 


   Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower at midday with fresh lows being scored as 
fund selling returned this morning after initially positive trade. The 
short-fund position is pushing towards 350,000 short with the action so far 
this week. The forecast should allow for better progress in much of the Belt 
this week with the north remaining slowest, and a potential wetter start to May 
for much of the belt. The weekly ethanol report showed production 32,000 
barrels a day higher, with stocks 71,000 barrels higher, which has ethanol 
futures 2 cents lower. Basis has been broadly firmer at many end-users with 
fieldwork being the biggest focus for producers. South American harvest should 
continue to move along toward completion with cheap export offers. On the July 
nearby chart, support is the fresh low at $3.560, with the 10-day at $3.66 
nearby resistance, and then the 20-day at $3.69. 


   Soybean trade is 2 to 3 cents lower at midday with overnight profit taking 
giving way to fresh selling again. Meal and oil is narrowly mixed. Crush 
margins have faded but remain solidly positive with meal still holding the $300 
level. South American currencies remain cheap as soybean harvest winds down. 
The daily export wire has been quiet in recent days along with trade news ahead 
of next weeks negotiations. On the July chart, support is the fresh low at 
$8.70 3/4, with resistance the lower Bollinger Band at $8.79  3/4, and then the 
10-day moving average at $8.98.


   Wheat trade is 5 to 9 cents lower with Kansas City the weak leg this morning 
with fund selling returning late in the overnight session and carrying over 
into the day session. Europe and the Black Sea area will be watched more as 
their growing season keeps moving. The U.S. high Plains look wet for Oklahoma 
and Texas along with eastern Kansas, and the north more open for progress in 
the next few days. The world export market has been quieter this week as well. 
On the July Kansas City chart, support the fresh lows at $4.11, with the lower 
Bollinger Band at $4.15, and resistance the 10-day at $4.27. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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