DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/25 11:12
Corn, Soybeans, Wheat Lower at Midday
Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower, soybeans are 5 to 6 cents lower and
wheat is 6 to 16 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 210. The U.S. Dollar Index
is 20 points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are firmer with
crude up .60. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are mixed with
gold up $5.00.
Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower at midday with rangebound trade
continuing as we head towards the Thanksgiving break. The daily export sales
wire was quiet again Wednesday. The weekly ethanol report showed production up
28,000 barrels per day (bpd) with stocks up by 663,000 barrels with poor
driving demand last week; ethanol futures are losing ground to unleaded at
midday. Basis remains generally strong. On the December contract support is the
20-day moving average at $4.13 with the lower Bollinger band at $3.94 as the
next level down with the fresh high at $4.29 3/4 scored Monday with the upper
Bollinger band at $4.31 above that.
Soybean futures are 5 to 6 cents lower with trade continuing to chop just
below the highs with little fresh news. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 lower and oil is
45 to 55 points higher. The daily export wire has remained quiet for soybeans
with concerns about China crush margins and cancellations rumored but
unconfirmed. South America has some dry pockets building with northern Brazil
looking to see more moisture short term; the southern 1/3 of Brazil will be
very dry the next week. Wetter action is expected for most in the longer-term
forecast. Basis remains strong as we continue to work to max out our logistics
capacity to ship the needed export bushels with freight issues remaining in
play. The January chart has resistance at the fresh high of 12.00 scored
Monday; the upper Bollinger band is at $12.22 and support is the 20-day moving
average at $11.32.
Wheat futures are 5 to 17 cents lower with broad selling during the day
session as we work towards the lower end of the range after failing to break
out Tuesday. The dollar has turned lower again, which should be supportive
overall. World export tenders continue to go to Black Sea origin for the most
part with little change in overall conditions there. The western U.S. Plains
remain dry in the short term as we head towards dormancy with some snows across
Kansas bringing a bit of moisture. KC is at a 45-cent discount to Chicago with
spreads reversing after testing the upper end of the range; Minneapolis is at
-48. KC December chart resistance is the 20-day moving average at $5.52, which
we will have broken back below at midday; support is the lower Bollinger band
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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